February Supply Chain Update
Two topics in the news are Covid and inflation. Covid’s impact on the economy persists, which continues to impact our industry. Inflation, in December, reached a 40-year-high. Interest rates and other Federal Reserve actions caused the 10-year treasury rate to rise by 30 BP (or .3%) in January alone. Rightly, mortgage rates have risen as well. Last month, we reported that mortgage rates may reach 3.6% by year-end. They have increased to about 3.55% in January alone (a 40 BP change). Zonda estimates that the cost of a .5% increase in mortgage rates impacts the buying power of a home, with a $300,000 mortgage, by $20,000.
Inflation and the resulting short term rate increases have impacted the financial markets and are an understandable focus for policymakers and administrators. Demand for new homes remains, perhaps prompted in part by potential homeowners wishing to secure mortgages before rates climb further. Existing home inventory continues to be largely unavailable based on historical levels, which necessitates new home construction. The broader US economy, albeit unsettled by inflation, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, continues to exhibit strength. As we shared last month, industry economists continue to forecast that single family permits will grow 5 to 8% over 2021 levels across the country. The Northeast is forecasted to be in the lower end of this range. For a broader discussion on the economy and its impact on our industry, consider viewing Zonda’s January 19th Covid Housing Outlook HERE.
Lumber and panel prices continued their assent through most of January, with lumber prices taking a small dip last week. Both are impacted by steady demand, reduced workers due to Covid, and the cost/availability of transportation. Lead times for lumber are extended and “cash market” fill in to meet demand (for Myers and its competitors) has been smartly higher than random lengths pricing.
Interestingly, Future’s pricing for March lumber contracts are actually 16% less than market pricing today. However, the Future’s market has been volatile and may not be reflective of the tight market we continue to experience. Panel prices increased 17% in January alone. The rate of weekly increases accelerated at month’s end. Availability of panels continues to be tight.
Supply chain constraints seem to be increasing for many other products. Windows and doors are problematic due to demand, part availability for manufacturers, Covid impact on manning and transportation. Glues and caulking supply are very limited. Lead times for other products vary month to month. Please make note of the present lead time constraints by Andersen and work alongside your sales rep to be sure we can secure windows and doors for your project.
Thanks for your partnership,
Regards, Bob Wood, President
P: 717-792-2500 | E: [email protected]
CABINETS:
- Gallery lead times are currently 9-14 weeks.
- Omega / Dynasty lead times are currently 9-16 weeks for framed & inset cabinetry. Full access cabinetry lead times are 25-28 weeks.
- Legacy lead times are 7-8 weeks.
- Timberlake lead times are 8-12 weeks. They have also announced a 12% price increase effective March 14th.
- Quality Cabinets lead times are 9-10 weeks.
- Aristokraft lead times have extended to 20-22 weeks. They have also announced a 10% price increase effective March 24th.
- WOLF Cabinetry lead times are 6-8 weeks. There will be a 15% price increase on their Classic Series effective February 14th and a 10% price increase on their Signature Series effective March 25th. They have also discontinued several products in the Signature Series effective March 24th. Click HERE to see list.
MILLWORK:
- Reeb has announced the following price increases to go into effect on February 28th.
- Interior & exterior wood grain doors: 14%
- Interior & exterior Simpson doors: 10%
- Reeb has delayed implementing the previously announced price increase on Fypon and HB&G products until February 28th.
- Fypon products: 7%
- HB&G:
- FRP Pergola, PermaPost, PermaCast caps & bases & wood columns: 25%
- PermaPorch ceilings & rail: 10%
- Round PermaCast: 8%
- Square PermaCast & Smart Column: 5%
WINDOWS & DOORS:
- Andersen Window lead times have become complex and will change on a day-to-day basis. Basic options can add to the lead times on all window lines making it impossible to give estimated lead times on various window lines at this time. To determine the lead time all options and selections will have to be made before Andersen can establish the lead time for the order. The previously announced price increase of 7-10% will go into effect on February 10th.
- Velux has reintroduced Velux Solar Skylight Shades. Last summer, Velux was forced to limit skylight shade production due to the global microchip shortage. Lead times will be 7-10 days.
- Marvin Windows and Doors lead times on the Elevate Collection is 15-16 weeks, Essential Collection is 15 weeks, and Signature Collection is 17-25 weeks.
- Ply Gem lead times have improved, but are still extended. 1500 Series Single Hung is 12 weeks, and the Pro Classic Double Hung is 10 weeks. They have announced a price increase of 5-10% effective March 11th.
- Simonton’s lead time is 7-12 weeks on the new construction series and 6-7 weeks on the replacement series. Due to the extreme cost increases related to Krypton gas supply constraints there will be a 120% increase on Simonton’s Krypton gas option effective February 1st. They have also announced a price increase of 5-10% effective March 11th.
- Silver Line lead time is 10 weeks on single hung and 5 weeks on double hung. They have also tested and recertified the thermal performance values for several products. For the most recent certified NFRC energy data, click HERE. They have announced a price increase of 5-10% effective March 11th.
- Atrium lead time is 12 weeks on new construction double hung, 14 weeks on new construction single hung 150/160 Series, and 30 weeks on SH 130 Series. They have announced a price increase of 5-10% effective March 11th.
- 7-D Windows lead time continues to be 3-4 weeks. Tempered glass units are 12-16 weeks. Contact your sales rep should these lead times enable you to achieve a quick turn project.
- Therma-Tru has announced the following price increases effective February 4th. Therma-Tru 8′ tall and flushed glazed doors are on allocation with extended lead times. Standard door lead times are 3-5 weeks.
- Fiberglass Doors: 16%-18%
- Steel Doors: 18%-20%
- Composite Frames: 20%-22%
GARAGE DOORS:
Lead times are 16-20 weeks depending on style and color selection.
INSULATION:
Insulation continues to be on allocation and supply issues will more than likely continue through much of this year.
ROOFING:
- EPDM rubber roofing & accessories all have extended lead times, anywhere from 60-120 days depending on the product. Rubber roofing & accessories will have a 10-20% price increase February 1st.
- GAF’s supply and color availability continue to be very limited. A price increase of 6-8% went into effect on January 31st.
- TAMKO – Myers has the full line of 13 colors of TAMKO Heritage shingles in stock and the full line TAMKO Titan XT. They have announced a price increase of 8% that will go into effect on February 7th.
- Central State Roofing has been experiencing shortages in metal products & extended lead times on some orders. Check with your rep for current lead times.
SIDING:
- Berger continues to have extended lead times on all coil stock, flashing & roof edge, ranging from 45 to 75 days.
- CertainTeed has suspended the availability of some dark colors in their normal offering. Check with your Myers sales rep for clarification on the availability of your color selection. All CertainTeed products are on allocation, and we are still experiencing extended lead times. We are currently out to February 17th with orders. Please click HERE to review a list of discontinued CertainTeed products. They have also announced a price increase of up to 10% to go in effect on March 14th.
- James Hardie has announced that all shingle siding is on allocation. They’ve permanently discontinued Reveal Panel Systems in both primed and ColorPlus Technology. Click HERE for additional details.
CAULKING & ADHESIVE:
- Caulking continues to be hard to locate. The lack of raw materials needed to manufacture caulking has put a strain on the supply chain. Myers is doing everything it can to secure your caulking needs.
- Construction adhesive has been affected by the same constraints as caulking, only worse. One of our main suppliers is not manufacturing adhesive basically because of the lack of raw materials needed to produce. Myers has added a new construction adhesive TYTAN Foam. Click HERE to learn more about TYTAN.
EWP:
LP is experiencing extended lead times of 3 to 4 weeks with limited supply on-hand. They have announced a 2nd quarter price increase effective on shipments received after April 4th. See below. Keep in contact with your sales rep for up-to-date information.
- I-Joists: 20-24%
- LVL: 9-15%
- Rim Boards: 35-38%
- LSL: 10-30%
HARDWARE:
Since March 2020, steel prices have more than doubled due to raw material shortage and escalated shipping costs.
- Schlage has announced a 7-10% price increase effective February 19th.